China's ruling elites are watching President Donald Trump's war on Iran with a mix of disdain and opportunism. A short war would not hurt America enough, while a longer conflict would damage China too much. Despite having much at stake, China is unlikely to shape the outcome of the war. Chinese analysts express puzzlement over Trump's moves, often blaming Israel for his actions. China has chided America and Israel for flouting international law and has jointly called for peace with Pakistan. The country's tightly controlled news outlets emphasize the war's human toll, with many ordinary Chinese expressing anger towards America and Israel.
Chinese elites draw different lessons from raids on Venezuela and Iran, expressing alarm at the sight of American forces using advanced AI tools. They fear that China may need years to catch up. The Iran war is likely to leave Arab monarchies more reliant on America for security, but China hopes to offer the Middle East opportunities to rebuild or modernise war-battered countries. Globally, China expects soaring demand for its greentech as countries diversify away from oil.
Well-connected Chinese scoff at the notion that Trump's campaigns reveal a grand strategy to contain their country. China has good relations with Delcy Rodríguez, the Venezuelan leader, and will be one of its best markets when Venezuelan oil exports resume. China also has chokeholds to use in retaliation, including its control of rare-earth minerals. A veteran America-watcher suggests a new worry for China: that an Iranian debacle will weaken Trump and allow China hawks in his administration and Congress to regain influence.
