Donald Trump's strategy in Iran is like the weather in his home state of Florida: if you don't like it, then wait for five minutes. The president's tone on the war has shifted multiple times, leaving the world wondering what his next move will be.
With a dwindling number of diplomats still thinking a ceasefire is possible, Trump has four options for how to proceed: talk, leave, continue, or escalate. However, none of these options are good, and the war is entering its fourth week.
The choice of mediator may be complicated, with Oman having angered its Gulf neighbours with its sympathetic stance towards Iran throughout the war. A narrow deal that swaps sanctions relief for limits on Iran's nuclear programme will not suffice, as America wants Iran to accept strict limits on its missile programme and end its support for Arab militias.
Trump could try to simply end the war by declaring victory, but this would be the Trumpiest option, selling an inconclusive campaign as a decisive victory. Alternatively, he could stay the course and continue air strikes, but this may not drive the number of Iranian missile-and-drone attacks lower, and the regime may hit a tipping point or not.
The final option is to escalate to de-escalate, as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described it, by hitting Iran's power plants or dispatching commandos to secure its enriched uranium. However, this would be fraught with risk, and the marines who seize Iranian islands would then have to hold them under regular drone attacks.
What is more, none of these options may actually end the war. The president could declare victory, only for Iran to keep the strait closed, or he could press on for a few more weeks only to find himself at a similar impasse. Having started this war, Trump has no easy way to finish it.
