The Middle East is in a state of profound uncertainty as the US-Iran conflict escalates, with energy markets roiled and Gulf monarchies on edge. The installation of Mojtaba Khamenei, son of assassinated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, as the new Supreme Leader of Iran signals continuity rather than change, with the regime intent on fighting on, not compromising under pressure.
Shishir Gupta describes the confrontation as a grinding, attritional fight with no easy off-ramp, with the US and Israel escalating bombing runs targeting Tehran's infrastructure, oil depots, and other strategic sites. Iran continues to launch missiles and drones at Gulf countries, widening the conflict footprint and ensuring costs are felt beyond its borders.
The ultimate ultimatum is surrender or die, with President Donald Trump determined to force Iran into either surrender or destruction, while Mojtaba Khamenei and the IRGC are equally adamant that they will not capitulate. Each side can declare its own version of victory, but the real question is whether Washington can achieve the holy grail of total victory: regime change in Tehran.
