Middle East Conflict Pushes Mortgage Rates Higher, Will They Fall Again?

Mortgage rates have risen, influenced by geopolitical conflict and inflation. Predictions suggest rates will remain around 6.0% to 6.1% throughout the year.

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Mortgage rates have begun rising again in March after briefly dipping below the key 6% threshold, with economists linking the change partly to heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East that have rattled global markets and pushed energy prices higher.

According to recent data, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is hovering around 6% to 6.17%, while the 15-year mortgage rate is roughly between 5.3% and 5.41%, according to mortgage data compiled by the Mortgage Research Center.

Three factors will determine mortgage rates in 2026: the timing of the rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, oil prices, and the Iranian conflict, according to Coinpaper.

Mortgage rates have risen since yesterday and are now higher than they were seven days ago. Rates are still lower than they were in early 2025, when the typical 30-year fixed-rate mortgage exceeded 7%.

However, mortgage rates remain relatively high due to concerns about persistent inflation, which has prevented the Federal Reserve from lowering its benchmark rate until late 2025.

Mortgage rates fluctuate frequently, so compare offers and evaluate the personal and market aspects that affect your stated mortgage rate.

Forecasts from Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association suggest rates could hover around 6.0% to 6.1% for much of the year, depending on inflation and Federal Reserve policy decisions.