Trump's Foreign War Collides with Economic Priorities Ahead of Midterm Elections

A promise to steady the economy helped the president win voters in 2024. The attack on Iran could undermine that support, months before the midterms. | World News

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A delivery van driver in Illinois is concerned about the recent surge in gasoline prices, which rose overnight to $3.39 a gallon from $3.00. The driver, Aung Min Tun, says his one-man business will be hurt if prices stay above $3.50 a gallon and will not be able to run if they exceed $4.50. Trump's pledges to lower prices and keep the U.S. out of foreign wars helped him win a second term, but the conflict with Iran is creating domestic challenges that lawmakers and Republican strategists didn't anticipate.

The U.S. economy and labor market cooled last year after big jolts, including Trump's tariffs and a government shutdown. However, recent months have brought hopeful signs, with low gasoline prices helping to cool the annual inflation rate to 2.4% in January from 2.7% in December. Hiring rebounded in January, and the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage dropped below 6% for the first time in 3½ years.

Less than a week into the conflict, cracks are emerging, with U.S. gasoline prices up and markets down. The attacks on Iran have halted a weekslong rally in U.S. government bonds, pushing up the yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which plays a big role in determining mortgage rates and other borrowing costs nationwide. Mortgage rates ticked back up on Thursday to 6.0%.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll found that shortly after the strikes, about a quarter of U.S. adults supported the military campaign against Iran. That poll found 45% of American adults said their support would weaken if the U.S. saw higher gas or oil prices. Oil and gasoline prices jumped after the attack and continued climbing after tankers stopped flowing through the Strait of Hormuz.

Voters have a 'general skepticism' about involvement in the Middle East, Sen. Kevin Cramer (R., N.D.) told reporters Tuesday. Democrats have been campaigning for months on bringing down costs ahead of this year's midterm elections. 'Americans need focus on the high costs of food, not another war in the Middle East,' Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D., N.Y.) said Wednesday.