When President Trump voiced hope last weekend that the air war he was unleashing against Iran would topple the country’s regime, he was making a bet against history.
Never before have warplanes, missiles and bombs been enough on their own to remove one government and replace it with another.
The U.S. military has upended governments in the past, but all of those operations have required troops or at least an indigenous force.
U.S. military leaders have sought to temper expectations in public briefings of what the war might accomplish.
The objective, they say, is to strip Iran of ballistic missiles, one-way attack drones and ships that threaten U.S. forces and allies, while also finishing off the remnants of the country’s nuclear program.
Adm. Brad Cooper, the head of the U.S. Central Command—which is overseeing the war, told reporters Thursday that U.S. strikes could benefit Iran’s opposition by “targeting the headquarters and the people who are targeting the protesters” and urged the Iranian people to stay in their homes and “lay low.”
But the U.S. military hasn’t promised to oust Iran’s regime or take steps to bring a new set of leaders to power in Tehran, such as arming the opposition or providing air cover for a potential rebellion.
