El Niño, a cyclical warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, is expected to have a significant impact on India's 2026 monsoon. According to the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), the probability of a strong El Niño this year is higher than previously believed.
The forecast suggests that El Niño will arrive as early as the May-July season, with a 61% probability of developing during this time. By July-September, the probability of at least a moderate El Niño is 49%, and by August-October, it increases to 63%. However, the probability of a strong El Niño reaches 50% only in the October-December season.
Historical data shows that if all four months of the monsoon are affected by an El Niño, a deficit in monsoon rainfall is almost guaranteed. In fact, 16 out of 20 monsoons affected by El Niño since 1951 have had a deficit in monsoon rains, with an 80% probability.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has modelled a forecast of below-normal rains this monsoon, with a 8% deficit and an error range of +/-5%. However, a better picture will emerge only in the late May/early June forecast.
