The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has downgraded its monsoon forecast to below normal, predicting a 90% chance of rainfall at 90% of the long period average (LPA). This is a decrease from the earlier forecast of 92% of LPA.
The LPA of monsoon rainfall over the country during June to September is 87 cm. The IMD has also warned of a hotter June, with above-normal heatwave days expected over many parts of the country.
The IMD has issued a probability forecast for the monsoon, with a 60% chance of a "deficient" monsoon, a 24% chance of a "below normal" monsoon, and a 2% chance of an "above normal" monsoon.
The IMD has also warned of challenges for agriculture, water availability, hydropower generation, and ecosystem sustainability due to below-normal rainfall.
The IMD will continue to issue weekly and extended-range forecasts, along with early warnings and impact-based forecasts, to help authorities prepare for heatwave conditions.
