In a welcome respite from the scorching heat that has plagued much of India, May is expected to be a milder month, with day temperatures likely to be normal to below normal across most parts of the country, according to the India Meteorological Department.
However, exceptions are expected in many parts of southern peninsular India, some parts of the northeast and northwest India, where daytime temperatures are expected to be higher. Night temperatures, on the other hand, are expected to be above normal across many parts of the country, with some areas likely to experience normal to below-normal minimum temperatures.
The relative cool is expected mainly due to a higher likelihood of thunderstorm activity over several parts of the country and an increased frequency of western disturbances.
IMD officials have been observing an increase in WDs since March, with moisture incursion from the Arabian Sea strengthening them. "We are expecting more WDs and more thunderstorm activity in May. This is not necessarily linked to the evolving El Niño," said M Mohapatra, director general, IMD.
Rainfall during May is likely to be above normal, exceeding 110% of the long-period average. Normal to above-normal rainfall is expected over most parts of the country, except some parts of east and northeast India and east-central India, where below-normal rainfall is expected.
The milder outlook does not, however, mean an absence of heatwaves. Above-normal heatwave days are likely over some parts of the foothills of the Himalayas, especially southern Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, as well as northeast Bihar, east coast states, Gujarat and Maharashtra.
IMD's extended range forecast shows above-normal rainfall activity, especially over east and northeast India, till May 7. Day temperatures are expected to be high over northwest India during the second and fourth weeks of May.
The broader climate picture remains a concern, with ENSO-neutral conditions evolving toward El Niño over the equatorial Pacific, with a 60% probability of El Niño establishing during May, June and July, IMD said.
El Niño conditions are expected to prevail through the monsoon season till the end of the year. El Niño typically saps India's monsoon of rain.
