The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has revised its seasonal rainfall forecast downward to 90%, with a 60% probability of a deficient season.
This would mark the lowest monsoon season rainfall in 11 years, with the LPA for the June-to-September season calculated at 87cm.
El Niño is expected to arrive earlier and bite harder than previously assessed, and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently in a neutral state, removing a mitigating factor.
The forecast carries a model error of ±4%, and there is an 84% probability of below-normal rainfall or worse.
The monsoon is expected to arrive later than previously forecast, with below-normal rainfall forecast for most parts of the country, except parts of Northwest India, Northeast India, and isolated pockets of central India.
The onset of the monsoon is now in doubt, with IMD's extended range forecast showing largely dry conditions over Kerala between May 28 and June 4.
June is expected to be hotter than previously estimated, with above-normal heatwave days forecast over many parts of the country.
