The exit poll projections for four states and a Union Territory have shown mixed results: continuity in Assam, possible change in West Bengal and Kerala, and a surprise entrant in Tamil Nadu.
The post-poll projections were released shortly after the voting concluded for the second phase of West Bengal elections on Wednesday evening.
West Bengal has been a tough state to crack both for chief minister Mamata Banerjee's rivals, and equally difficult for pollsters.
Most of the exit polls had gone wrong in the 2021 assembly polls.
A majority of pollsters, including Matrize, P-Marq, Poll diary and JVC have predicted a majority for the BJP.
On the other hand, Peoples Pulse and Janmat Polls predicted pro-incumbency in favour of chief minister Mamata Banerjee's TMC.
Axis My India said it will not release exit poll projections for Bengal, citing lack of response from the voters.
People's Pulse projected a Trinamool Congress (TMC) tide in Bengal giving a fourth term for Mamata.
The pollster allotted TMC 177 to 187 seats, while the BJP expected to win between 95 and 110 seats.
Matrize and P-Marq suggested BJP winning the Bengal ending Mamata's 15-year reign.
Matrize gave the BJP 146-161 seats and the TMC 125-140 seats.
P-Marq projected 150-175 seats for the BJP and 118-138 for the TMC.
According to the Poll Diary, the BJP is expected to get 142-171 seats, while the TMC trailing with 99-127 seats.
The JVC exit poll predicted a tight contest between the two camps, with the TMC projected to get 131-152 seats, while the BJP getting 138-159 seats.
Today's Chanakya predicted 192 seats for the BJP and 100 for the TMC in Bengal with a margin of error of 11 seats.
CNN-News18's Vote Vibe predicted a close fight in Bengal, with the BJP getting 143-163 seats and the TMC 127-147 seats.
All the pollsters gave a maximum of 5 seats to the Congress and up to 10 seats to Others.
The Left Front was also reduced to a maximum of three seats.
DMK wave to continue in Tamil Nadu?
Tamil Nadu is headed for an interesting contest with most of the pollsters predicting another term for the DMK-led alliance.
However, the election can also throw a surprise with Actor Vijay's victory, similar to MG Ramachandran's victory in 1977.
The Axis My India projections show an advantage for Vijay's TVK leading 98-120 seats.
It also showed the DMK alliance getting 92-100 seats, and AIADMK-led NDA getting 22-32 seats.
Vijay was also the top choice of voters as favourable chief minister's face in the state with 37 per cent approval.
Matrize gave the advantage to DMK alliance with 122-132 seats, while the AIADMK alliance getting 87-100 seats.
TVK was projected to get 10-12 seats.
P-Marq showed similar trends with DMK-led alliance winning with 125-145, AIADMK+ leading in 65-85 and TVK ahead in 16-26 seats.
According to the People’s Pulse exit poll, the DMK-INC+ alliance was ahead in 125–145 seats, the NDA in 65–80 seats, and TVK in 18–24 seats.
The JVC was the only pollster to predict the AIADMK alliance winning Tamil Nadu.
It gave 128-147 seats to NDA, 75-95 to DMK and 67-81 to TVK.
The Kamakhya Analytics predicted a triangular contest between AIADMK, DMK and TVK with a slight advantage for the DMK alliance.
Today's Chanakya predicted that the DMK would return to power in Tamil Nadu with 125 seats with actor-turned-politician Vijay's TVK beating AIADMK secure second spot with 63 seats.
Pro-incumbency in Assam?
Assam was the only state where all the pollsters showed another term for Himanta Biswa Sarma government.
Axis My India predicted a clean sweep for BJP in Assam, with NDA front getting 88-100 seats, Congress-led alliance getting 24-36 seats.
According to Matrize, the NDA alliance was expected to get 85-95, the Congress alliance expected to get 25-32 seats, and Others likely to get a maximum of 12 seats.
The Peoples Pulse projection also showed the BJP at an advantage.
While Himanta's alliance was projected to win 68-72 seats, Congress-led alliance was expected to get 22-26 seats.
P-Marq, Poll Diary, JVC and Kamakhya Analytics projections showed NDA alliance leading with at least 80 seats, confortable crossing the halfway mark, while the Congress limited to a maximum of 40 seats.
The Axis My India survey also showed 48 per cent voters favouring Himanta Biswa Sarma as the CM, while Congress leader Gaurav Gogoi with an approval rating of 32 per cent.
Today's Chanakya predictions showed 102 for the BJP-led alliance and 23 seats for the Congress-led alliance.
Kerala to follow its track record?
Kerala is one of the few states which has seen a rotating government every alternate turn.
Though the LDF government under Pinarayi Vijayan managed to break the streak, repeating a rare consecutive win in 2021, the state seems to follow its past trend.
All the pollsters showed the Congress-led UDF winning the state, ending the 10-year reign of Vijayan government.
Axis My India predicted 78-90 seats for Congress-led alliance, while the LDF was expected to get 49-62.
Matrize expected 70-75 seats for UDF, 60-65 for LDF and 3-5 seats for NDA.
Meanwhile, the People's Pulse forecast 75-85 seats for Congress alliance, while the LDF getting 55-65 seats.
P-Marq projections showed 70-75 seats for the Congress bloc, 60-65 seats for the LDF.
The JVC predicted 72-84 seats for the UDF, while the LDF was expected to get 52-61 seats.
Today's Chanakya predicted a close contest, forecasting 69 seats (plus/minus nine seats) for the UDF, and 64 seats (plus/minus nine seats) for the LDF.
The NDA was expected to get a maximum of 7 seats.
Kerala assembly has 140 seats with the magic mark being 71.
Rangasamy-led NDA to sweep Puducherry?
The pollsters have projected a victory for the All India NR Congress-led (AINRC) NDA winning Puducherry.
The Peoples Pulse projection shows the NDA alliance getting 15-19 seats in the 30-assembly union territory, while the DMK-led alliance getting between 6–8 seats.
According to Axis My India, the NDA is projected to secure between 16 and 20 seats, while the DMK–Congress alliance expected to win 6-8 seats.
Vijay’s TVK could get 2-4 seats.
Kamakhya Analytics was expected to get 17-24 seats, while the DMK-Congress was expected to get 4-7 seats.
TVK was expected to get 1-2 seats.
Voting was held in Puducherry across 30 constituencies on April 9.
Congress is contesting as part of an alliance with the DMK and CPI, while the All India NR Congress (AINRC), BJP and AIADMK are together.
