The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has announced that the monsoon is likely to arrive in Kerala around June 4, three days behind schedule.
According to the IMD, the monsoon advances northwards from Kerala, usually in surges, covering the entire country around July 15.
With 51% of India's farmed area being rain-fed, accounting for 40% of production, the monsoon is critical for the country's agriculture.
Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall (7-20 cm) is very likely in Kerala over the next six to seven days, with moderate to severe thunderstorm activity and squally wind speeds of up to 40-50 kmph expected in parts of north-west, central, east India, and south Peninsular India.
The IMD's extended range forecast shows largely dry conditions over Kerala between May 28 and June 4, with a very marginal improvement expected from June 4 to June 11.
The delayed monsoon onset in Kerala is attributed to a typhoon developing over the West Pacific and a cyclonic circulation over the Lakshadweep region.
The IMD has revised its seasonal rainfall forecast downward, from 92% of the long-period average (LPA) to 90%, with a 60% probability of a deficient season.
The LPA for the June-to-September season is 87cm, and if the prediction bears out, it would mark the lowest monsoon season rainfall in 11 years.
El Niño conditions are developing, increasing the risk of extreme weather over the coming months, with an 80% likelihood of an El Niño event during June–August 2026.
