Shares of India's state-run refiners, led by Indian Oil Corp. Ltd., have seen their steepest declines in over a year due to a surge in crude oil prices. The widening Iran war has pushed Brent crude to nearly $120/barrel, with Hindustan Petroleum Corp. Ltd. (HPCL) leading the plunge with a 7.5% drop, followed by Bharat Petroleum Corp. Ltd. (BPCL) with a 7.1% decline.
Indian Oil fell up to 6.6%, while Reliance Industries Ltd. shed 2%. The selloff dragged the Nifty Oil & Gas Index down 2.7%, bringing its cumulative losses to 6.6% since the initial US-Israeli strike on Iran on 27 February 2026.
Global brokerages have re-evaluated the sector's profitability in the face of soaring input costs, with UBS noting that Indian OMCs are “negatively leveraged” to abrupt crude spikes. UBS estimates a sales-to-production ratio of 1:2 for Indian Oil and BPCL, and 2:2 for HPCL.
Citigroup Inc. warned that the ultimate hit to refiners' bottom lines will hinge entirely on the duration of the geopolitical shock, with severe upside risks if the conflict forces a closure of the Strait of Hormuz or halts Qatar’s LNG output.
