The US-Iran ceasefire has triggered a coordinated repricing across global markets. Brent crude fell to $91.7-$94.4 per barrel, marking a one-day decline of 14-16%. The US dollar index declined by 1.0-1.1% to around 98.8, its lowest level in four weeks. US equities moved in tandem as the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq rose 2.4% and 2.9%, respectively.
Bitcoin followed this macro adjustment rather than leading it, with prices moving to $71,575-$71,927, a gain of 4.5-4.8%. The alignment seems direct, with oil easing, the dollar weakening, and risk assets repricing higher.
The transmission in this cycle begins with oil, which accounts for 20% of global oil flows. The move in Brent to the $91-$94 range reflects a sharp reduction in disruption risk, the starting point of the current repricing across markets.
Market-implied probabilities now show the likelihood of holding rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% through December 2026 declining to 53.6% from 77.4%. The probability of a 25 basis point cut has increased to 35.2% from 16.7%, and the probability of a 50 basis point or larger cut has risen to 10.4% from 1.1%.
The dependence remains tight, with rate expectations anchored to oil remaining within the $90-$95 band. A move in Brent back above $100 would rebuild the inflation impulse and quickly reprice these probabilities.
The currency market reflects the same adjustment, with the dollar index at around 98.8, following a roughly 1% one-day fall, pointing to a partial easing in global liquidity conditions. Bitcoin's move into the $71,500-$71,900 range, alongside the rise in US equities, indicates that crypto is currently responding to this liquidity shift rather than to crypto-specific demand.
Institutional flows do not yet confirm the price move, with US spot Bitcoin ETFs recording net inflows of $471.4 million on April 6 and net outflows of $159.1 million on April 7.
The market is operating within clearly defined thresholds, with oil in the $91-$94 range, the dollar index around 98.8, ETF flows between +$471.4 million and −$159.1 million across two sessions, and Bitcoin trading in the $71,500-$71,900 band.
A single day of strong inflows followed by immediate outflows indicates that institutional participation is still adjusting to macro signals rather than reinforcing price levels. What follows now depends on whether this adjustment evolves into sustained positioning.
