After a three-month bombing campaign, the U.S. and Iran are back at the negotiating table, but this time, Tehran comes with a newfound sense of confidence and a stronger hand.
The Iranian regime has survived the worst of the American and Israeli airstrikes, and in the process, has gained control of the strategic Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for global oil trade.
Experts say that Iran's ability to withstand the military pressure has undermined the U.S. leverage in nuclear talks, making it less likely that Tehran will agree to renewed international inspections or limits on its nuclear program.
Despite the economic pressure and the cost of reconstruction, Iran remains vulnerable and may still be tempted by the American carrot of sanctions relief and economic aid.
However, key figures in the Iranian regime are skeptical about the U.S. willingness to relax or remove sanctions, and some experts predict that Iran may create new obstacles to delay future progress in the nuclear talks.
The planned memorandum of understanding commits Israel not to fight Lebanon's Hezbollah militia, effectively establishing Iran's right to target the Gulf if it does.
The deal has already come under criticism from parts of Israel's governing coalition and from leaders of the center-left opposition, and the potential for a flare-up remains high.
