Global energy markets may be in for a bumpy ride as oil prices are expected to remain high for months despite a recent deal between the US and Iran.
A memorandum of understanding (MoU) between the two countries calls for the lifting of the US Navy's blockade of Iranian ports and reopening the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days.
However, experts warn that normalisation will take time, and even if the deal holds, it may take several weeks or even months for oil to start flowing again from the Gulf.
Traders are pricing in relief, with Brent crude sliding below $80 a barrel, but wary buyers are not yet placing large orders for Gulf crude.
Alternative lanes along the Iranian and Omani coasts are dangerous and narrow, and few ships brave them.
Most shipowners may wait for the conduit to be made safe, which could take six weeks or more.
As tankers return, Gulf producers will start pumping again, but large fields with lighter crude will be the first to restart, and it may take three months for them to reach pre-war production levels.
Analysts expect overall Gulf production to reach 30-50% of February levels by mid-July, 60-70% by mid-September, and 80-90% by the end of the year.
Prices in the Gulf and outside it are converging again, but the pre-war world of abundant oil is a long way off.
Even if outbound vessels start crossing Hormuz soon, inbound ones may not return in full for four or five months, predicts BRS, a ship broker.
There is also the question of tolls, with Iran hinting it may charge "fees" instead of tolls, which could deter operators and keep supply constrained.
Traders expect America to cancel its next release from emergency stocks in light of the MoU, which would deprive the world of 1m b/d in exports.
Morgan Stanley anticipates an oil-supply deficit of 3.4m b/d in the third quarter of the year, draining already record-low global stocks at a rate of 2.1m b/d and keeping prices high.
The bank forecasts that "dated Brent" will average $90 between July and September and $80 in the last three months of the year.
The prices of refined products are even harder to predict, with delays to product shipments possible in Africa, Asia, and Europe.
American refiners may now swing back to producing petrol for the home market, but domestic stocks are so low that prices at the pump may stay high for a while, or even rise again.
