Rebel Lawmaker Set to Try a Knockout Blow to U.K.’s Starmer | World News

LONDON—British politics is set for a fresh bout of chaos after Labour politician Andy Burnham won a special district election, allowing him to enter Parliament and launch a leadership challenge against the deeply unpopular Prime Minister Keir Starmer.Burnham, the 56-year-old mayor of Manchester, was elected by a comfortable margin in voting Thursday to represent the district of Makerfield in northern England, defeating a candidate from the anti-immigration party Reform UK.By entering Parliament, Burnham can now attempt to unseat Starmer as Labour leader and prime minister, raising the prospect that the U.K. could get its sixth prime minister in seven years, a period of unprecedented turmoil in one of the world’s oldest and most stable democracies.“Everyone knows that politics isn’t working, everyone can feel that the country isn’t where it should be,” Burnham said during a victory speech. “Tonight could, just could, be the turning point.”Starmer, who took Labour into power with a big majority just two years ago, is under pressure from his own lawmakers as his party trails Reform in the polls. Many Labour lawmakers fear losing their jobs in the next general election in 2029 and think swapping out Starmer gives them the best chance of survival.It is unclear when Burnham will formally launch his leadership challenge, or if Labour ministers will rise up en masse to try to topple the prime minister. Starmer, a former prosecutor turned politician, is likely to come under growing pressure in coming days from lawmakers and some of his own cabinet members to step down and avoid a drawn-out leadership fight.If Starmer does step down, Burnham could sweep into Downing Street on the basis of winning over a plurality in a district of just 77,000 voters in a corner of northern England.“There is nothing in modern British history that matches this,” said Catherine Haddon, a senior fellow at the Institute For Government, a think tank. “Winning a by-election and marching on London to take over the premiership, it’s new territory for Britain.”Starmer may have his own ideas, and has said he won’t quit, an outcome that would lead to a summer of stasis and uncertainty for the world’s fifth-biggest economy as both men embark on a messy, monthslong leadership contest to convince Labour Party members that they are the right man for the job.The U.K., like many European countries, is in the throes of a populist political overhaul, which is fragmenting its political landscape and threatening the dominance of its two traditional parties, Labour and the Conservatives.The results in Makerfield, a quiet suburb between Manchester and Liverpool, show how a reordering has taken place. For decades, the working-class area was a die-hard Labour stronghold. Yet for weeks Labour fretted that Reform U.K. could take the seat.Ultimately Burnham’s local star power and a huge campaigning effort by Labour paid off. Burnham also campaigned on a policy to remove Starmer, which helped his case. Reform UK, which is led by Trump supporter Nigel Farage, claimed 34% of the vote in the district, well behind Labour’s 55%.Reform’s performance was damaged by the emergence of a new nativist party called Restore Britain, which advocates the mass expulsion of immigrants and sucked in right-wing Reform voters, scoring 7%. The Conservatives’ vote meanwhile collapsed to 2%.Starmer looks likely to fall prey to this rapid reordering of the political status quo. He entered Downing Street in 2024 promising that a steady hand would return order to British politics, which had been convulsed by Brexit, Covid-19, an energy crisis caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and a merry-go-round of new prime ministers.While inflation has fallen, the economy remains stuck in low gear, and average household income adjusted for inflation has grown only about 0.5% a year over the past five years, leading many voters to feel frustrated.Despite some progress in reducing both legal and illegal immigration from historic levels, there are still tens of thousands of asylum seekers crossing the English Channel in small boats every year, an issue that helped catapult Farage back into Britain’s political mainstream a decade after his successful campaign for Brexit.Starmer’s tenure has been blighted by policy U-turns, a decision to raise taxes despite promising not to and a perception that he struggles to push through difficult decisions, including how to trim the country’s ballooning welfare budget. This, combined with his wooden speaking style, has resulted in open season for parties on Labour’s left and right.Half of Labour’s 2024 voter base has defected to other parties, polls show. The party logged one of its worst performances on record at local elections in May, which spread panic among lawmakers that Labour could be wiped out in the 2029 general election.To trigger a formal challenge, Burnham needs the public support of 20%—or 81—of Labour’s lawmakers, which seems likely. Any other lawmaker that also gets that level of support could also challenge Starmer, who automatically gets to run. Former health minister Wes Streeting said he might launch his own challenge as soon as next week if Starmer refuses to go.The final decision of who gets to be party leader and thus prime minister would then go to a majority of Labour’s paid members—some 250,000 voters, plus some labor unions. Most analysts think that Burnham, who has marketed himself as a more telegenic and left-wing version of Starmer, is the odds-on favorite.Burnham, who during his four-decade political career has gradually shifted to the left of the Labour Party, has only vaguely outlined what he intends to do if he gets into office.He made a name for himself as the mayor of Manchester, a northern city that has seen rapid economic growth in the last decade. Burnham champions the idea of a more active state, and decentralizing power from London to the regions.Burnham spooked investors by arguing that Britain’s government should be less concerned about the judgment of debt markets in whether it borrows more to spend. The U.K. already has the highest borrowing costs for its 10-year debt at about 4.77%, compared with 4.46% for the U.S. and 3.57% for France, despite having less debt as a percentage of its economy.During the weekslong Makerfield campaign, however, Burnham walked back most of those comments and framed himself more as a continuity candidate. Burnham also talked tougher on immigration, saying levels needed to fall further and backing the use of detention centers more widely to prevent asylum seekers who don’t win their case from staying in the country illegally.His Labour supporters say Burnham has the charisma to see off populist parties that are siphoning votes from Labour and win back its working class electorate. Burnham has a much higher approval rating with the public than Starmer. The fact that Burnham defeated Reform UK in Makerfield is touted by his team as evidence of what he could bring to the table. In national polls, Reform currently leads Labour by about 10 points.Write to Max Colchester at [email protected]