El Nino Alert: Monsoon Season at Risk as Global Temperatures Reach Record Highs

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New Delhi: Early forecasts suggest a 48% chance of El Nino emerging in the second half of India's monsoon season, which could lead to a weaker monsoon and harsher summers. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has issued a bulletin indicating a 45% probability of ENSO-neutral conditions and less than 10% chance of La Nina conditions during the same period. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), there is a higher probability of El Nino conditions emerging in June-July-August. While it's too early to predict with certainty, the forecast has raised concerns among meteorologists and climate scientists. The potential impact of El Nino on India's monsoon is particularly concerning, as the monsoon is the lifeblood of the country's economy. India's farmed area is heavily rain-fed, and 47% of the population depends on agriculture for livelihood. The 2023-24 El Nino event led to record-breaking heat globally, with a global average temperature of 0.76°C above the 1991-2020 average and 1.64°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average. Another El Nino emerging in 2026 would likely exacerbate the warming trend caused by climate change. Climate scientist Roxy Mathew Koll warns that El Nino could lead to a shorter monsoon season and a hotter year than 2025. The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has cautioned that naturally occurring climate events like La Nina and El Nino are taking place in the broader context of human-induced climate change. Meanwhile, the WMO's Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update (2025-2029) projects a 70% chance that the five-year average warming for 2025-2029 will surpass 1.5°C, leading to frequent and severe heat waves, droughts, and extreme weather events. As India recorded its eighth warmest year in 2025, experts are urging caution and emphasizing the need to mitigate global warming by reducing fossil fuel emissions.