India Poised to Drive Global Coal Demand Growth Despite Global Slowdown, IEA Warns

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India is set to lead the world in coal demand growth over the next five years, despite a global slowdown in coal consumption. The International Energy Agency's Coal 2025 report predicts that India's coal demand will rise by an average of 3% annually, adding over 200 million tonnes by 2030. While the rest of the world is expected to see a decline in coal demand, driven by the increasing adoption of renewable energy, natural gas, and nuclear power, Southeast Asia is expected to experience the fastest growth, with demand projected to increase by over 4% per year. India's coal share in the country's electricity mix is expected to fall from 70% in 2025 to 60% by 2030, as renewable and nuclear power generation continue to grow. The country has already surpassed its target of installing 50% of its power capacity from non-fossil fuel sources, and aims to install 500 GW of non-fossil based capacity by 2030. The Centre has introduced a bill to grant licences to private companies to operate nuclear power plants, and to rationalise payouts in case of accidents. Despite the government's efforts to expand non-fossil generation capacity, India commissioned 20 new coal-fired power plants totalling 14 GW this year. In contrast, the European Union and the United States are expected to see further declines in coal demand, while China's coal demand is expected to fall slightly by the end of the decade. The International Energy Agency has warned that coal's trajectory is uncertain, citing trends in electricity demand growth and the integration of renewables worldwide as key factors that could impact coal's demand. The agency's director of energy markets and security, Keisuke Sadamori, said that developments in China, including economic growth, policy choices, and energy market dynamics, will continue to have an outsize influence on the global picture.