The southwest monsoon is likely to make its onset over parts of the south Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea, and Andaman & Nicobar Islands by the end of this week, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
Conditions are becoming favorable for the onset, with a low-pressure area over the southwest Bay of Bengal laying over the same region, and its associated cyclonic circulation extending up to 4.5km above mean sea level.
However, officials cannot forecast the monsoon onset over Kerala immediately, with a forecast expected to be issued on or around May 15.
The monsoon normally advances over northeast India around June 5, and its onset and quantum of rain are particularly important this year due to the expected El Nino conditions.
El Nino is associated with a harsher summer and weaker monsoon, and IMD has forecasted below-normal monsoon rainfall over the country at 92% of the long period average (LPA) with an error margin of +/-5%.
