Great powers are learning they don't have as much power as they thought. Despite spending billions on their armed forces, the U.S., Russia, and China have been unable to secure strategic victories over smaller nations like Iran and Ukraine.
The conflicts raging around the world are different, but they carry a similar lesson: the kind of war where a nation is invaded and occupied is no longer conceivable. Wars can run as long as a nation has the resilience and will to resist.
Regime change can no longer be achieved just by the force of arms in the modern world. The U.S. and Russia were humbled in foreign wars in the past, and the same is happening now.
The drone warfare revolution has leveled the playing field between great powers and smaller nations. China is paying attention to these trends, and experts say it should learn from Russia's skills in modern drone warfare.
The Thucydides phrase, 'The strong do what they will, and the weak suffer as they must,' is an expression of crude fatalism rather than a guide to the world's complicated reality.
Unlike Ukraine and Iran, Taiwan might not have the will to exercise its agency because China is sapping the population's determination to resist a possible future Chinese military operation.
The Philippines is also locked in a dispute with Beijing, and could face a similar problem with the determination to resist if war erupts.
Middle powers such as Canada have no choice but to cooperate with similar nations to avoid subordination to global hegemons.
