Donald Trump's imprint on the Supreme Court may be his most enduring legacy. With three appointments, he created a 6-3 conservative majority, leading to landmark rulings that have pleased him and his supporters. However, a closer look at the court's current term reveals a more complicated picture.
The justices have shown willingness to rule against the president when he crosses statutory or constitutional boundaries. For instance, they ruled 6-3 against his 'Liberation Day' tariffs, citing the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Chief Justice John Roberts pointed out that the act does not mention tariffs, and the constitution gives the power to raise taxes to Congress, not the president.
Despite this, the court is moving to the right, often in ways that benefit Mr. Trump. In cases that will shape the structure of American government and politics, the conservative majority is expected to uphold bans on natal males in women's sports, loosen campaign-finance restrictions, and allow the administration to revoke temporary protections for migrants from Haiti and Syria.
However, the court does not reliably rule in Mr. Trump's favor. The Economist's scotusbot predicts a 7-2 or 6-3 defeat for the president in Trump v Cook, which concerns whether he can remove a Federal Reserve governor for allegedly lying on her mortgage application. The justices also seem sceptical of the government's position in Trump v Barbara, a case over whether the president can deny birthright citizenship to children born to undocumented immigrants or visa holders.
Despite ruling against Mr. Trump in some cases, the court's conservative majority is expected to entrench a stronger view of presidential power. Chief Justice Roberts often pushes back against accusations that the court has become 'politicised', but decisions favored by the conservative legal movement do often have political consequences that benefit Mr. Trump and the Republicans.
