The decline of summer jobs among teenagers is often attributed to artificial intelligence, tariffs, and rising gasoline prices. However, a closer look at the data reveals that teenagers have been leaving the workforce on purpose for nearly half a century.
The share of 16- to 19-year-olds holding a job has fallen by a third since 1979, from 48.5% to 31.1%. Yet, the teenage unemployment rate is lower today, at 14%, than the 16% registered in 1979.
Teenagers didn't lose jobs; they stopped wanting them. The price of a teenager's time changed, sharply. The wage premium a college degree brings roughly doubled between the late 1970s and 2000, from about 40% to nearly 80%.
The reward for folding shirts at the Gap shrank: The federal minimum wage, adjusted for inflation, is worth about 40% less than at its 1968 peak. Enrollment rose as a consequence, but school can't be the whole story: The Bureau of Labor Statistics found that between 2000 and 2015, labor-force participation fell even among teens not enrolled in school, from 76% to 65%.
The vanishing summer job is two experiences buried in one statistic. For most American teenagers, the decline is a rational bet on a future that rewards their time elsewhere. For the kid who needs it most, the same number means the opposite. If we're going to worry about the disappearing summer job, let's worry about the teenagers who need it most.
