Donald Trump's Iran policy has reached a critical juncture. Despite claiming Iran is 'completely defeated', the country continues to defy the US and its allies. The situation is precarious, with Iran threatening global energy supplies, Israel bombing Lebanon, and hawks in America pushing for unrealistic war aims.
Mr. Trump is in a triple bind, with Iran's hardliners emboldened and the people suffering under the war. The US must prepare for higher energy prices, and a deal with Iran is the only viable option. However, any agreement would be unstable and humiliating for the US.
The situation is further complicated by Israel's actions, with Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu vetoing strikes on Beirut and expanding Israel's occupation of southern Lebanon. Phone calls between the two allies are increasingly tense, and the hard men in Tehran are delighted at their enemies' division.
Meanwhile, hawks in America are demanding full-scale war on Iran, including attacks on its oil infrastructure. However, this is unlikely to work, and Mr. Trump is right to resist such demands.
The energy crunch could be excruciating, with reserves running short by autumn. American voters will punish Republicans in the midterm elections if the situation does not improve. A makeshift pact to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for an extended ceasefire is the best Mr. Trump can hope for.
