Warnings about the long-term stability of the US social safety net are intensifying after new federal data revealed a sharp spike in funding gaps. A Fortune analysis of government financial statements found that the country's 75-year unfunded social insurance obligation rose by $10.1 trillion in just one year: from $78.3 trillion in fiscal 2024 to $88.4 trillion in 2025.
The figure shows the widening gap between projected payouts and expected revenue under current law, putting pressure on policymakers.
Programs overseen by the Social Security Administration support more than 70 million Americans, including retirees, people with disabilities and survivors. As the funding gap grows, experts warn that tough decisions, such as benefit cuts, higher payroll taxes or raising the retirement age, could be unavoidable.
A notable portion of the increase is linked directly to Social Security, whose projected shortfall rose by $2.5 trillion year-over-year, according to the report.
However, the largest contributor to the overall surge was Medicare Part B, which accounted for a $6.9 trillion jump. Together, these programs make up the bulk of the long-term imbalance.
Experts warn of potential reductions, with some predicting a 20-30% haircut once the trust fund runs dry.
Under current law, full benefits will continue until trust fund reserves are depleted. After that, automatic cuts could take effect unless Congress steps in.
