The Copernicus Climate Change Service has reported that May 2026 was the second-warmest May on record, with temperatures potentially following a 2023-like curve.
According to the service's global temperature data, the deviation in global temperatures this year might be influenced by the ongoing El Niño, which is forecast to intensify later this year.
Historical data shows that the average year follows a U-shaped curve, with high levels of warming at the beginning of the year decreasing during the Northern Hemisphere summer season.
However, not all years have followed this trend, with 2023 being an exception where warming appeared to increase as the year progressed.
The reason behind these unusual trends could be temperature trends in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, tracked through the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI).
El Niño conditions have a warming effect on global temperatures, while La Niña conditions have a cooling effect.
In 2023, the Pacific shifted from neutral conditions to El Niño, leading to an increase in warming through the year.
2026 started with the lingering impact of La Niña conditions, but El Niño appears to have already set in, which could lead to a larger spike in global average temperatures toward the end of the year.
However, El Niño is not the only factor affecting global temperatures, and the trends described must be interpreted with caution.
