El Nino, a Pacific warming pattern that weakens India's monsoon and drives harsh summers, has been declared by Japan's meteorological agency. This development puts India's weather establishment on notice as the rain-bearing season struggles to establish itself.
The Japan Meteorological Agency said conditions characteristic of El Nino have been observed in both the ocean and atmosphere of the equatorial Pacific, and that an event is currently underway. India's own weather office has not yet made the same declaration, but the threshold is close.
Australia's Bureau of Meteorology confirmed the Pacific is closing in on the threshold, with sea-surface temperatures exceeding El Nino thresholds and atmospheric indicators beginning to align.
The development confirms India's monsoon rainfall this season is projected at 90% of the long-period average, down from the 92% forecast in April, with El Nino expected to suppress rainfall particularly in the second half of the season.
The season's importance to India cannot be overstated, with nearly half of the country's net-sown area lacking irrigation access and the system replenishing 91 natural reservoirs that supply power generation and drinking water.
