India's pursuit of strategic autonomy has been a recurring theme in New Delhi's conversations and social media discourse. However, much of this discussion has been lopsided, focusing on the political aspects without addressing the material base. In reality, a country's autonomy is a function of its national power, not its political intentions or declarations.
The Indian state's policies cannot ignore the country's material dependence on external powers. The Middle East supplies most of India's energy, China provides manufacturing, the US offers technology and capital, Russia replenishes the legacy defence inventory, and France and Israel provide high-end military ware.
India faces a unique dilemma, as its ambition and material dependence create a paradox. The country's continental landmass, nuclear-armed adversaries, maritime arc to defend, and 1.5 billion population make it difficult to abandon strategic autonomy. However, its material dependence on external powers limits its ability to act independently.
India's dependencies are both strengths and weaknesses of its policy of multi-alignment. The Russia relationship provides discounted oil and sustains military platforms, while the American relationship brings technology and capital. The French and Israelis offer military capabilities, and the Chinese supply chain keeps Indian manufacturing cost-competitive.
Instead of lamenting vulnerabilities, India can choose to navigate them cleverly. The country must know what is a strength and what is a vulnerability, and at what moment one becomes the other. The Russia example shows that oil can be a strength until Western sanctions come along, and American technology access can be a strength until an unfriendly White House makes it a weapon.
India's foreign policy has always been about negotiating autonomy against dependencies. The time has come to focus on strategic capacity – the ability to produce, deploy, replace, and sustain in critical domains. True strategic autonomy is a product of strategic capacity.
Multi-alignment should be discussed honestly, as it is a serious response to India's dependence portfolio. Sometimes, multi-alignment is intelligent hedging, and at other times it is weakness being managed carefully. Building material power is politically unglamorous and slower than electoral cycles, but it is essential for a country that wants to act decisively.
