Elon Musk's high-stakes lawsuit against OpenAI is expected to be an uphill battle, with experts and prediction markets giving him a 40% chance of winning. Musk is seeking damages of up to $180 billion and other remedies, including the removal of OpenAI's CEO and President from their leadership roles.
The case centers around Musk's claim that OpenAI's CEO, Sam Altman, tricked him into bankrolling the company when it was a nonprofit, only to turn it into a for-profit entity. OpenAI argues that Musk knew about and supported the plan to create a for-profit structure and is only suing now to throw sand in the gears of a competitor.
The trial is expected to focus on the key issue of breach of charitable trust, with Musk alleging that he donated assets intended for an open-source nonprofit, which were then taken and used for a closed-sourced for-profit. However, experts in nonprofit law question the judge's decision to allow Musk to bring the breach of charitable trust claim, given that he is not on the board of the nonprofit or company.
The case is expected to be a complex and contentious one, with the judge ruling that the jury will not have the final say on remedies, even if it finds OpenAI guilty. The most likely outcome, even if Musk does win, would pair a money award well below the headline figure with targeted governance fixes and guardrails.
