The US-Iran conflict has paused, but the global order remains on thin ice. A naval blockade at the Strait of Hormuz, ordered by President Donald Trump, has raised concerns about a wider escalation. The US has pushed two Arleigh Burke-class destroyers into the Strait, but independent verification is difficult due to warships switching off their AIS systems.
Shishir Gupta, Executive Editor of Hindustan Times, warns that such a move invites retaliation from Iran, using mines, explosive-laden kamikaze boats, missiles, and drones against US and allied shipping. Any such strike would likely trigger counter-retaliation by heavily armed US destroyers and aircraft carriers, raising the risk of a wider escalation.
The breakdown of talks in Islamabad, meant to consolidate a ceasefire, was "doomed from the very beginning" due to maximalist positions and irreconcilable red lines on Iran's nuclear program. A sustainable peace would require Iran to cap its nuclear program and hand over its 60% enriched stockpile to a third country or the IAEA, a concession that would be politically suicidal for Tehran's hardline regime.
The economic stakes are enormous, with an estimated 900 ships stuck in the Persian Gulf. If they cannot exit, the immediate result will be an energy crunch that can quickly spiral into a global economic crisis. Crude prices have already jumped, and the US, Gupta notes, cannot simply allow Iran to "dominate" Hormuz and charge a de facto toll, but equally cannot treat freedom of navigation selectively without undercutting its own legal and political arguments.
India's role in the crisis has been misunderstood, with some commentators framing its diplomacy as a failure. Gupta rejects this framing, arguing that India is operating on an entirely different plane, focused on "post-ceasefire diplomacy". India is safeguarding its diaspora, energy security, and wider regional relationships, rather than competing to be a fixer between Washington and Tehran.
China's influence in the crisis has been overstated, Gupta suggests. While Beijing has reportedly supplied air defense systems, ammunition, and missiles to Iran, there is little transparency on what Beijing has actually delivered. Iran's own strategic predicament is incentive enough for it to talk, and the US is grappling with domestic inflation and an approaching midterm election cycle, leaving Trump unable to appear weak.
The war has been a sobering reminder of the Gulf monarchies' vulnerability, and they will have to deepen both defensive and offensive capabilities and work more closely with each other to ensure they are not treated as collateral damage in someone else's war.
