AMERICAN TECH is in lay-off mode, with Oracle and Block announcing thousands of job cuts. But experts say the sector's woes aren't due to AI, yet. In fact, AI is driving a generational boom in tech, with humans becoming redundant in some roles.
Employment in tech has fallen by 3% in San Francisco since 2023, and across America, technology's share of overall employment has dipped from 2.5% in late 2022 to 2.3% today.
However, economists argue that the slowdown in tech recruitment is unlikely to have had much to do with AI, as most firms are still not using AI regularly in their day-to-day operations. A recent survey finds that AI has had 'essentially zero' impact on employment over the past three years.
History also suggests that tech employment is not an iron law of nature. In the 2000s, tech employment was soft, despite the growing tech intensity of economies. Analysts point to outsourcing and monetary policy as factors that held down job growth in the industry.
Today, many firms are turning to outsourcing again, and interest rates are rising, discouraging businesses from investing in software and computer equipment. However, tech workers' current predicament looks eerily similar to the past, with strong demand for tech skills in other industries.
A new paper suggests that companies are expanding their ranks of coders more slowly than before the introduction of ChatGPT, but continue to expand them nonetheless. Even as the AI threat looms, tech jobs are not going away, but spreading through the whole economy.
