The recent breakdown of ceasefire talks between the US and Iran has led to a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a pivotal waterway in the Persian Gulf. However, much attention has been paid to the global impacts of this conflict, while the complex history and sociopolitical fabric of the Hormuz region itself remains overlooked.
The region has long been a hub of global oil and gas trade, with great powers seeking to control the Strait of Hormuz for centuries. Imperial Britain, in particular, played a significant role in the region, co-opting local tribes and sheikhs with financial incentives to secure passage for commercial shipping.
The same tribes and clans that Britain privileged in the 19th century remain the ruling families of the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait. However, local rulers on both sides of the Gulf constructed narrow nationalisms based on Arab Sunni Islamic and Persian Shi'a Islamic identities, creating an illusion of political and cultural homogeneity.
Despite this, highly diverse communities continue to live along both coasts, including ethnic Arab and Baluchi communities, as well as the indigenous population of the southern coastlines of Hormuz, who speak a unique language called Kumzari.
The current crisis has potential implications for the region, with the ideological legitimacy of the Iranian state being hollowed out, and sub-national identities, including those communities adjacent to the Strait of Hormuz, potentially crystallising and mobilising in the vacuum.
Oman's control of the Musandam peninsula and its closeness to Iran create an uncomfortable tension with Abu Dhabi, the UAE capital, and the potential for the UAE to exploit local identity politics to try and bring the strategic Musandam peninsula under its own control is very real.
The fate of the Strait of Hormuz is emblematic of shifting world orders, with the US risking similar mistakes to those made by Britain in 1956, failing to adapt to local dynamics as the world changes again.
