The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has secured a historic victory in Assam, winning 82 out of 126 MLAs in the state. This is the third consecutive time the BJP has won Assam, and it has done so with a significantly higher margin than in previous elections.
The BJP's victory can be attributed to its rise in popular support, as evident from its 55% stand-alone contested vote share in the state. This is a significant increase from previous polls, and it suggests that the BJP's performance is not just due to factors like gerrymandering from the 2023 delimitation in the state.
On the other hand, the Congress alliance has performed significantly worse in terms of seat share despite retaining its vote share from past elections. The Congress has polled about 34% of the vote share in Assam this time, but its seat share has fallen to a paltry 17.5%, the worst performance for the party in the state's history.
The Congress's decline can be attributed to the brutal first-past-the-post (FPTP) system at play. With the BJP's opponent camp led by the BJP having reached the 50% vote share, the Congress has seen a sharp fall in its ability to convert votes into seats.
The political geography behind the punishing math for the Congress is also an important factor. Assam is not a homogeneous state in terms of its demography, with a significant Muslim population in certain sub-regions. The Congress has managed to win just one AC in the two low Muslim population sub-regions of the state against the BJP's 41 AC wins in these.
The religious profile of the Congress's MLAs is also a significant factor. 18 out of the 19 Congress MLAs in the state are now Muslims, which suggests that the party has been marginalized among Hindus and is overly dependent on Muslim support in Assam.
