Global average temperatures are likely to continue at or near record levels over the next five years, according to a new report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), produced by the Met Office.
Arctic temperatures over the next five extended northern hemisphere winters (November-March) are predicted to be 2.8°C above the 1991-2020 average, the report said.
Annual global mean near-surface temperatures during 2026-2030 are predicted to range between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above the 1850-1900 average.
It is likely (86% chance) that one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record, according to the Global Annual-to-Decadal Update.
The update further projected that the five-year predicted average temperature in the central tropical Pacific (Niño 3.4 region) indicates a tendency towards El Niño conditions, particularly in 2027 and 2028.
There is now a more than 90% chance of El Niño conditions developing during the June-August period, according to the latest forecast by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Predictions for Arctic sea ice for March 2026-2035 suggest further reductions in sea-ice concentration in the Barents Sea, Bering Sea and Sea of Okhotsk.
