India is likely to see a below-normal monsoon this year, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasting 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall, a projection that could signal challenges for the country's rain-fed agriculture and the broader rural economy.
The LPA of the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole during 1971-2020 is 87 cm. The spatial distribution released by IMD suggests that the below-normal seasonal rainfall is most likely over many parts of the country except some areas over northeast, northwest and south Peninsular India, where normal to above-normal rainfall is likely.
The forecast carries significant economic implications, with monsoon being the lifeblood of India's economy. According to the agriculture ministry, 51% of India's farmed area, accounting for 40% of production, is rain-fed. With 47% of the country's population dependent on agriculture for their livelihood, a below-par monsoon can dampen rural consumption and push up food prices.
El Nino conditions are likely to be established during the monsoon season, especially during July, August and September, according to the Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS). At present, weak La Niña-like conditions are transitioning to ENSO-neutral conditions over the equatorial Pacific.
IMD has made its LRF for monsoon both based on statistical models and dynamic models that considers both oceanic and atmospheric conditions. The statistical models suggest that there is a 35% probability of a "deficient" monsoon (< 90%); 31% probability of a "below normal" monsoon (90 to 95%); 27% probability of a "normal" monsoon (96 -104%); 6% probability of an "above normal" monsoon (105-110%) and only 1% probability of "excess" rainfall (> 110%).
