India's monsoon rainfall this year is expected to be below normal at around 94% of the long-period average (LPA), with a 40% probability of below-normal rainfall and a 30% chance of drought conditions, according to private weather forecaster Skymet Weather.
The return of El Niño is a key risk to the June–September season, with Skymet expecting the Pacific Ocean to turn favourable for ENSO-neutral conditions but a shift to El Niño imminent.
The forecast carries significant economic implications, as 51% of India's farmed area is rain-fed, and 47% of the country's population depends on agriculture for their livelihood.
Skymet had flagged the risk as early as January, and the forecaster expects the second half of the season to be more erratic and irregular due to El Niño.
The Indian Meteorological Department's own assessment aligns with Skymet's forecast, with neutral ENSO conditions currently prevailing over the equatorial Pacific.
Skymet expects the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) to be neutral or slightly positive this year, which should contribute to a decent start to the season, but the IOD is not expected to be strong enough to offset El Niño.
The forecast suggests that June will be stable, but rainfall is likely to weaken from July to September, with a rainfall deficit in central and northwest India.
