The Congress-led UDF's sweep in Kerala was particularly pronounced in regions with significant minority populations. The UDF secured 51.9% and 50.2% of votes in constituencies in districts with substantial Muslim and Christian populations, respectively, compared to 42.1% in the rest of the state.
Using district-level Census 2011 data as a proxy, the analysis found that the UDF's gains were concentrated in areas where Kerala's two largest minority communities are demographically important. The Muslim-significant region comprises Kasaragod, Kozhikode, and Malappuram districts, which together have 34 Assembly seats.
The UDF won 31 of these seats, leaving the LDF with just three. Malappuram was a complete sweep for the UDF, with the alliance winning all 16 seats. Kozhikode too moved strongly towards the UDF, which won 11 of 13 seats.
The LDF's losses in this belt are also visible in vote share. Across these 34 constituencies, LDF's vote share fell by an average of 7.7 percentage points from 2021, while UDF's rose by 7.6 points.
The biggest UDF gains in the Muslim-significant districts came in Elathur, where its vote share rose by 16.2 percentage points, followed by Nilambur, Tirurangadi, and Manjeshwar.
The result in Thavanur was politically notable too. Congress candidate V S Joy, a Christian leader, won in Malappuram district, a region where Muslims form an overwhelming majority.
The pattern was similar in Christian-significant districts, including Ernakulam, Idukki, Kottayam, and Pathanamthitta, which together have 33 assembly seats. The UDF won 32 of them.
The UDF's gains in these districts were also significant, with the LDF's vote share falling by an average of 8.1 percentage points from 2021, while the UDF's rose by 9.1 points.
The result also shifted the balance within Kerala Congress politics. Jose K Mani's LDF-aligned Kerala Congress (M) drew a blank, including Jose's own defeat in Pala, while the UDF-aligned Kerala Congress of the PJ Joseph camp won seven seats.
